gcisadawg
01-07 05:39 PM
You lived in India and hate India, because of your wicked religion.
Equating Bombay with Palastine is only a traitor can do.
Even passive support is act of betrayel.
Evil will be destoyed, it is God's will. They are preparing the kids for suicide bomber. So it is their fate to die little early, without harming any one.
Any way your religion and its founder are blasphamy for real children of God.
Only retard minded can follow it. Do suicide bomb to get 72 virgins. If any one of the virgin is a lesbian, what will do ?. If the guy is old, do he get viagara???They don't know in heaven no sex. No flesh, people in spiritual state.
dude, that is gross! There are so many others who follow Islam and just because a minority is engaging in terrorism in the name of the religion, you can not paint all with the same brush. I hope sense prevails here. If you want, attack refugee's pioint of view not his religion.
This is becoming crap. I request the moderators to throw this thread to where it belongs.
Equating Bombay with Palastine is only a traitor can do.
Even passive support is act of betrayel.
Evil will be destoyed, it is God's will. They are preparing the kids for suicide bomber. So it is their fate to die little early, without harming any one.
Any way your religion and its founder are blasphamy for real children of God.
Only retard minded can follow it. Do suicide bomb to get 72 virgins. If any one of the virgin is a lesbian, what will do ?. If the guy is old, do he get viagara???They don't know in heaven no sex. No flesh, people in spiritual state.
dude, that is gross! There are so many others who follow Islam and just because a minority is engaging in terrorism in the name of the religion, you can not paint all with the same brush. I hope sense prevails here. If you want, attack refugee's pioint of view not his religion.
This is becoming crap. I request the moderators to throw this thread to where it belongs.
wallpaper WWE is featuring Torrie Wilson
NKR
03-28 05:10 PM
the bubble that we saw and are seeing is once in a life time event - it will never happen in USA for a long long time (in most places). it will happen more in places like bombay (2 bubbles in last 2 decade)..
With what you say, there is no guarantee for a long long time. So that means there is no guarantee till the kids become big and have their own kids, so should one live in an apartment for years and years?.
You say that renting gives you more mobility, why shouldn�t a person whose job is long term and who loves his job and who is not required to travel buy a house close by his office?
A house comes with its own baggage. Of course if someone decides to buy a house he would have already known what he is getting into. He would definitely factor in all the fees, taxes, insurance etc. Even considering all of these, if he/she thinks it is good for him and his family to buy a house, why should not having a GC prevent him from not buying?.
Dude, it will cost you less then 50$ for the paint. I and my wife painted our living room together by ourselves, when one is making a decision to buy a house costing hundreds and thousands of dollars do you think he will worry about kids painting the wall?.
The only rational point I see in your post is that it might not be a good idea to buy a house now and it probably makes more sense to wait and watch.
With what you say, there is no guarantee for a long long time. So that means there is no guarantee till the kids become big and have their own kids, so should one live in an apartment for years and years?.
You say that renting gives you more mobility, why shouldn�t a person whose job is long term and who loves his job and who is not required to travel buy a house close by his office?
A house comes with its own baggage. Of course if someone decides to buy a house he would have already known what he is getting into. He would definitely factor in all the fees, taxes, insurance etc. Even considering all of these, if he/she thinks it is good for him and his family to buy a house, why should not having a GC prevent him from not buying?.
Dude, it will cost you less then 50$ for the paint. I and my wife painted our living room together by ourselves, when one is making a decision to buy a house costing hundreds and thousands of dollars do you think he will worry about kids painting the wall?.
The only rational point I see in your post is that it might not be a good idea to buy a house now and it probably makes more sense to wait and watch.
simple1
06-05 01:00 PM
The arguments like the following works for gc/usc only, who can stay put even after loosing job. The H1b has to leave the country.
- best time to buy
- inflation level of the real high prices
- lock low interest rates now.
- clean/strong foreclosure houses available now.
- federal incentive to buy house.
- downpayment assistance.
- etc.
- best time to buy
- inflation level of the real high prices
- lock low interest rates now.
- clean/strong foreclosure houses available now.
- federal incentive to buy house.
- downpayment assistance.
- etc.
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santb1975
06-08 12:37 AM
but I don't see the price coming down anytime soon either. Whoever invested in gold about 5-6 years ago made good money. Commodities are definately a good buy in this economy but any investments these days comes only after building up a 8-12 month emergency fund. This thread is getting interesting.
Thread gets more interesting...way of life..love the way it transformed from home buying good/bad to sound investment advice...here is my bit:
With all the $$ spending by government, inflation is inevitable. FED can try to fight it by increasing interest rates, but that will open another box of worms. In a hurry now and will post a detailed discussion later about interest rates, fed and inflation..very interesting indeed
my take is gold...solid investment in these times and a proven hedge against inflation
goodluck guys..more later
Thread gets more interesting...way of life..love the way it transformed from home buying good/bad to sound investment advice...here is my bit:
With all the $$ spending by government, inflation is inevitable. FED can try to fight it by increasing interest rates, but that will open another box of worms. In a hurry now and will post a detailed discussion later about interest rates, fed and inflation..very interesting indeed
my take is gold...solid investment in these times and a proven hedge against inflation
goodluck guys..more later
more...
immique
07-14 10:01 PM
For all those people who are misguiding the EB3 members on the forum- please stop playing with people's hopes and stop this nonsense about petition for spillover from EB1 to EB3. this is a foolish arguement and will not work. Do you think USCIS will give preference to EB2 over EB1? hell no. similarly, EB3 will not get any spill over visas unless EB2 is current. EB preferences are are established for a reason to give preference to better qualified individuals that US thinks are much needed. similarly family based preferences are established to give preference to dependents/relatives of US Citizens over other categories. Can you imagine second or third preference Family based category getting preference over the first preference category in Family based applications? No way this is going to happen.
Moreover after taking heat from Congress for wrongly interpreting the EB laws and unfairly giving visas to EB3 last year while EB2 is still retrogressed, do you really think that USCIS/DOS will make the same mistake again? some of the people seem to be wandering in a fool's paradise. this whole petition drama has caused rifts among the EB immigrant community for no good reason. the only way for EB3 to move forward is by EB2 becoming current and it may happen next year.
I can tell you for sure what kind of results this petition will produce.
1. it will not poduce any spillover to EB3 at all.
2. it will definitely attract more scrutiny towards EB2 from USCIS as it will try to establish clear distinction between EB2 and EB3 so that people are not confused between the categories thinking that they also qualify for EB2 as mentioned in the petition. USCIS may start strictly implementing "exceptional ability/ advanced degree/ Professional Occupation" part of the EB2 definition and start questioning the 5 year experience that many EB3 have used to convert to EB2. This will result in more problems for EB3 to EB2 conversions who have already filed and for future filings and will make it easier for people with Advanced degrees. This will help USCIS to make EB2 current quickly by greatly decreasing the number of applications in EB2 and may be then use the spill over to EB3.
After reading all this if people are still not convinced about my arguement, then go ahead and send in your petitions to whom ever you want to. As I said above, it will do more harm to EB3 than any good as it will potentially make it impossible for any future EB3 to EB2 conversions. Good luck in your effort.
Moreover after taking heat from Congress for wrongly interpreting the EB laws and unfairly giving visas to EB3 last year while EB2 is still retrogressed, do you really think that USCIS/DOS will make the same mistake again? some of the people seem to be wandering in a fool's paradise. this whole petition drama has caused rifts among the EB immigrant community for no good reason. the only way for EB3 to move forward is by EB2 becoming current and it may happen next year.
I can tell you for sure what kind of results this petition will produce.
1. it will not poduce any spillover to EB3 at all.
2. it will definitely attract more scrutiny towards EB2 from USCIS as it will try to establish clear distinction between EB2 and EB3 so that people are not confused between the categories thinking that they also qualify for EB2 as mentioned in the petition. USCIS may start strictly implementing "exceptional ability/ advanced degree/ Professional Occupation" part of the EB2 definition and start questioning the 5 year experience that many EB3 have used to convert to EB2. This will result in more problems for EB3 to EB2 conversions who have already filed and for future filings and will make it easier for people with Advanced degrees. This will help USCIS to make EB2 current quickly by greatly decreasing the number of applications in EB2 and may be then use the spill over to EB3.
After reading all this if people are still not convinced about my arguement, then go ahead and send in your petitions to whom ever you want to. As I said above, it will do more harm to EB3 than any good as it will potentially make it impossible for any future EB3 to EB2 conversions. Good luck in your effort.
Arjun
07-14 08:16 PM
I think all this mess is caused by H1B limit being 195k between year 2000 and 2004, before and after that 65k. Now when issuing H1B, they issue most of them to Indians (>50%) no country limit applies there. When it comes to GC and they put a 7% country limit and that�s where the backlog starts.
If they (USCIS) don't want to do anything about this then they should consider putting a limit on H1B and let business look for talent in countries other than India.
If they (USCIS) don't want to do anything about this then they should consider putting a limit on H1B and let business look for talent in countries other than India.
more...
bfadlia
01-07 04:09 PM
Thank you so much for the information although I think I never asked about the trinity or salvation or the return of the messiah (only said the yearning for that return should not be used to justify one people displacing another and taking their land).. I respect jesus.. all muslims do.. let god deal with us for not accepting jesus as his son and just please stop using him as a scarecrow and leave Mohamed alone too..
peace.
these are the comments i got for this post
Getting into wrong area!
you moron
did u even read the posts.. I'm asking people to get out of that area.. to stop mixing religion with politics
peace.
these are the comments i got for this post
Getting into wrong area!
you moron
did u even read the posts.. I'm asking people to get out of that area.. to stop mixing religion with politics
2010 WWE Divas Calendar 2008 World
rajmirk
05-24 08:17 PM
Please spend some time on this website....browse around, get acquainted, find the right threads and you will automatically find your answers. There is no 1800 number to call for assistance here............
I agree. But lets not scare away people either by such open criticism and rudeness. If no one responds to such questions, then ppl will automatically start looking things up in this or other web-sites.
-R
I agree. But lets not scare away people either by such open criticism and rudeness. If no one responds to such questions, then ppl will automatically start looking things up in this or other web-sites.
-R
more...
lfwf
08-05 03:17 PM
So why are those of us not in IT suffering the consequences of this?
Jobs in my field are pretty well defined so all this crap that is being said on thsi thread is really surprising to me.
Jobs in my field are pretty well defined so all this crap that is being said on thsi thread is really surprising to me.
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Beemar
12-27 12:40 AM
So what in your opinion is the reason for the state and the government of Pakistan to provoke India, with the risk of starting a war with India that Pakistan cannot win, at a time when the economy is in a very very bad shape and there are multiple insurgencies and regular suicide attacks within Pakistan?
There is no coherent state or government in Pakistan anymore, there are only personalities pulling the country in various directions. So let's only talk of personalities. My hunch (and that of the many world intelligence agencies too) is that Kayani did it! He was being pushed to a corner by Zardari, who was rapidly chipping away at his power at the behest of US. Apparently Zardari is wiling to give US a much freer hand in western Pak than Kayani. Kayani feared that Zardati may topple him and appoint another COAS. So he played this masterstroke. Zardari and Gillani were taken completely off guard by this hit.
There is no coherent state or government in Pakistan anymore, there are only personalities pulling the country in various directions. So let's only talk of personalities. My hunch (and that of the many world intelligence agencies too) is that Kayani did it! He was being pushed to a corner by Zardari, who was rapidly chipping away at his power at the behest of US. Apparently Zardari is wiling to give US a much freer hand in western Pak than Kayani. Kayani feared that Zardati may topple him and appoint another COAS. So he played this masterstroke. Zardari and Gillani were taken completely off guard by this hit.
more...
alisa
04-07 03:21 PM
I never thought online poker would get outlawed in USA. See this.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/2006-10-02-internet-gambling-usat_x.htm
So, forgive me for not feeling comfortable when people tell me that they think a certain law will not pass.
This is the same breed of people who authorized the Iraq war. If that disaster had not happened, maybe they could have debated other issues, and we would have had some immigration reform by now.
So, what should be do about this?
There are many big companies that depend completely on consultants for their software projects. Example Sony, Boeing... If this applies to existing H1bs then their projects will suffer a great loss.
ERP softwares basically are implemented by consulting firms .Then all big companies including Oracle,SAP cannot implement their applications anywhere as they have to hire people on their own to implement.All ERP implementations can be treated as consulting.This is going to be a big mess.
I don't think this bill is going pass successfully.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/2006-10-02-internet-gambling-usat_x.htm
So, forgive me for not feeling comfortable when people tell me that they think a certain law will not pass.
This is the same breed of people who authorized the Iraq war. If that disaster had not happened, maybe they could have debated other issues, and we would have had some immigration reform by now.
So, what should be do about this?
There are many big companies that depend completely on consultants for their software projects. Example Sony, Boeing... If this applies to existing H1bs then their projects will suffer a great loss.
ERP softwares basically are implemented by consulting firms .Then all big companies including Oracle,SAP cannot implement their applications anywhere as they have to hire people on their own to implement.All ERP implementations can be treated as consulting.This is going to be a big mess.
I don't think this bill is going pass successfully.
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desi3933
08-05 10:22 AM
If you find enough people and have solid plan in place, I am willing to pay anywhere between $500 to $1000 towards the lawyer's fees....
Just self-interest and what works for them.
Factions and Groups
eb2 vs eb3
Porting vs Non-Porting
some recent ones
eb2 NSC vs eb2 TSC
eb2 PD 2006 vs eb2 PD 2004 (as many 2006 PD are getting 485 approvals)
No wonder many people, after getting GC, do not visit this forum and support any immigration reforms.
--------------------------
Whatever we treasure for ourselves separates us from others; our possessions are our limitations.
-- Rabindranath Tagore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabindranath_Tagore) (Indian Poet and Nobel Prize winner for Literature in 1913)
____________________________
US Permanent Resident since 2002
** supports not counting dependents for EB Green cards **
Just self-interest and what works for them.
Factions and Groups
eb2 vs eb3
Porting vs Non-Porting
some recent ones
eb2 NSC vs eb2 TSC
eb2 PD 2006 vs eb2 PD 2004 (as many 2006 PD are getting 485 approvals)
No wonder many people, after getting GC, do not visit this forum and support any immigration reforms.
--------------------------
Whatever we treasure for ourselves separates us from others; our possessions are our limitations.
-- Rabindranath Tagore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabindranath_Tagore) (Indian Poet and Nobel Prize winner for Literature in 1913)
____________________________
US Permanent Resident since 2002
** supports not counting dependents for EB Green cards **
more...
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ak27
01-28 09:54 AM
Lou Dobbs has found an audience who oppose any form of immigration. Lou picks and choose facts which support his point of view and no one at CNN is stopping him because his ratings have gone up with his rant...
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mariner5555
04-13 12:17 AM
agree with Jung.lee. if you are in california or florida ..it definitely makes sense to wait. MSN reported that lot of people are just walking away ..
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/HomeownersWhoJustWalkAway.aspx
-------
Ismael, 37, still lives in his four-bedroom house in Menifee, Calif., for now. But he is ready to leave.
"The situation I am in is really ugly," said Ismael, who asked that his last name be omitted. "It's better for me to walk away and leave the stress and everything that is involved in this home. I am about 95% sure I am walking away."
The single parent of a 3-year-old, Ismael bought his $370,000 home in 2005 for no money down, qualifying on his mid-$40,000s salary. (That's about triple what he might have qualified for under more traditional lending guidelines used in MSN Money's Housing Affordability Calculator.) He was paying $2,700 a month for an adjustable 8.25% loan.
Photo by Joseph A. Garcia
Then he and his girlfriend split up, reducing his household income to a single paycheck at the same time the mortgage was adjusting upward. To add to his struggles, the value of his house dropped by $145,000.
Yadira Maga�a, left, with her children Lizeth Torres, 13, and Conrad Torres III, 10, have lived at her mother's Oxnard, Calif., home since walking away from their previous residence in 2007.
Yadira Maga�a, a medical biller in her early 30s in Oxnard, Calif., has a similar story. She walked away from her $585,000 home in June 2007. When she bought it, Maga�a thought she had gotten a great deal. She made a $16,000 down payment on the house. But she lived there only eight months before her marriage collapsed.
She couldn't afford to pay the $4,500 monthly interest-only mortgage, plus taxes and insurance separately, on her own $50,000 income. So she and her two children moved into her mother's house.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/HomeownersWhoJustWalkAway.aspx
-------
Ismael, 37, still lives in his four-bedroom house in Menifee, Calif., for now. But he is ready to leave.
"The situation I am in is really ugly," said Ismael, who asked that his last name be omitted. "It's better for me to walk away and leave the stress and everything that is involved in this home. I am about 95% sure I am walking away."
The single parent of a 3-year-old, Ismael bought his $370,000 home in 2005 for no money down, qualifying on his mid-$40,000s salary. (That's about triple what he might have qualified for under more traditional lending guidelines used in MSN Money's Housing Affordability Calculator.) He was paying $2,700 a month for an adjustable 8.25% loan.
Photo by Joseph A. Garcia
Then he and his girlfriend split up, reducing his household income to a single paycheck at the same time the mortgage was adjusting upward. To add to his struggles, the value of his house dropped by $145,000.
Yadira Maga�a, left, with her children Lizeth Torres, 13, and Conrad Torres III, 10, have lived at her mother's Oxnard, Calif., home since walking away from their previous residence in 2007.
Yadira Maga�a, a medical biller in her early 30s in Oxnard, Calif., has a similar story. She walked away from her $585,000 home in June 2007. When she bought it, Maga�a thought she had gotten a great deal. She made a $16,000 down payment on the house. But she lived there only eight months before her marriage collapsed.
She couldn't afford to pay the $4,500 monthly interest-only mortgage, plus taxes and insurance separately, on her own $50,000 income. So she and her two children moved into her mother's house.
more...
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ita
09-26 06:53 PM
There's is another thread running about the cause of Economic crisis,
Essence of the thread is this video..some in the thread say they checked the information and what this video says is true..check this one out.
Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH--o
Here' the thread:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21745
Thank you.
Essence of the thread is this video..some in the thread say they checked the information and what this video says is true..check this one out.
Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH--o
Here' the thread:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21745
Thank you.
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kart2007
05-15 10:11 AM
Its sad but true that Indian companies liek Infosys and TCS are in fact abusing the VISA system. I know a lot of my Indian friends who have recently come from India and are working ata really paltry salary.
Moreover I think L1 is worse as there are no wage limits for L1 as opposed to H1 (I may be wrong).
Its sad that thing is happening, but its true.
Moreover I think L1 is worse as there are no wage limits for L1 as opposed to H1 (I may be wrong).
Its sad that thing is happening, but its true.
more...
makeup WWE Divas
sri1309
08-13 07:43 PM
Guys,
We saw the September bulletin..
We knew what to expect..
But we were all a little hopeful to see some miracle happen.
And we were doing this every month.
NOW comes the count down we all were waiting for the last few months. Oct bulletin. In that, most of us are expecting some good news.. But what if it moves 3 months forward.. What if it moves 2 years forward. Then it will stop there for next 1 year, while we check every month.. Then it moves back.. Do we want this..
Its not going to make much difference to most of us here.
THIS IS THE TIME TO ACT NOW. We must all do some campaign may be flowers, may be cards, or I donno.
I have written to all the six members or reps to help us, but a bunch of mails will not help. JUst imagine if all the people in waiting sent the letters. Imagine 100,000 mails going to each of them, or 100,000 flower bouquets going to all.
Please please, lets act now. These small fixes cannot help us. If they want to put any quota limit, that should be at the main entry level whatever the non-immigrant category. Not at the other point when people start applying for GCs and suffocate here. We dont deserve this.
Please Lets act now., ONce again.. We did it in the past and it helped..
We need to do it again... Together we can do it. Together ONLY we can do it..
Sri.
We saw the September bulletin..
We knew what to expect..
But we were all a little hopeful to see some miracle happen.
And we were doing this every month.
NOW comes the count down we all were waiting for the last few months. Oct bulletin. In that, most of us are expecting some good news.. But what if it moves 3 months forward.. What if it moves 2 years forward. Then it will stop there for next 1 year, while we check every month.. Then it moves back.. Do we want this..
Its not going to make much difference to most of us here.
THIS IS THE TIME TO ACT NOW. We must all do some campaign may be flowers, may be cards, or I donno.
I have written to all the six members or reps to help us, but a bunch of mails will not help. JUst imagine if all the people in waiting sent the letters. Imagine 100,000 mails going to each of them, or 100,000 flower bouquets going to all.
Please please, lets act now. These small fixes cannot help us. If they want to put any quota limit, that should be at the main entry level whatever the non-immigrant category. Not at the other point when people start applying for GCs and suffocate here. We dont deserve this.
Please Lets act now., ONce again.. We did it in the past and it helped..
We need to do it again... Together we can do it. Together ONLY we can do it..
Sri.
girlfriend WWE Diva Candice Michelle
hiralal
06-04 10:07 PM
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
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GCnightmare
08-02 02:55 PM
Thanks for the quick reply. I never overstayed my I-94 either before leaving US or re-entering US. But just a thought... Do you mean if somebody covered by 245(i) and never left US after filing the labor before April 2001, still be eligible to adjust status?
Thanks
Thanks
Eternal_Hope
03-29 09:15 AM
I was watching Lou Dobbs yesterday he was discussing STRIVE act being introduced in house,
He pulled out a slide which says they bring 2 million legals every year and part of which said 400,000 H1Bs every year,
Where does he get this number when anual quota is only 65K, can some one verify this
I have seen him do this earlier also. I think he adds the dependants too. So, what he is saying is that with every H-1B comes 5 or 6 dependants!!!!
He pulled out a slide which says they bring 2 million legals every year and part of which said 400,000 H1Bs every year,
Where does he get this number when anual quota is only 65K, can some one verify this
I have seen him do this earlier also. I think he adds the dependants too. So, what he is saying is that with every H-1B comes 5 or 6 dependants!!!!
njboy
04-08 08:14 PM
genuine firms like microsoft are unable to hire h1b people because ..guess what? all the h1 quota is over..here in new jersey, I was approached multiple times by people who said if I get anyone to file an h1 in their company, and if the h1 came through..I would get 1000 U.S.D. I asked them..what should be their qualification, they said..dont worry about qualification, they'd give a free course for QC tester and place them. So I wont be surprised if big fortune 500 companies are also behind this bill.
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